Top aluminium producer RUSAL Plc has said that it expects more companies to cut aluminium output this year, with China accounting for about a third of global cuts, but still forecast that global output would top demand. A supply glut on the back of a deepening European debt crisis and global economic slowdown has hurt demand and prices for the lightweight metal, sending many aluminium producers into the red and triggering a round of production cuts, including at top U.S. aluminium maker Alcoa.
“RUSAL’s estimation is that primary aluminium production losses ex-China may achieve 2.7 million tonnes in 2012, and expect China closures will cut 1.2 million tonnes,” Rusal said. That would equal a total cut of 3.9 mlntonnes, about 8 per cent of its previous 2012 production forecast and take forecast global output to around 48.75 million tonnes, a RUSAL spokesman said.
RUSAL, which is considering cutting aluminium output by 6 per cent in the next 18 months, said it expected demand to rise by 7 per cent to 48.2 million tonnes, with 11 per cent growth in China offsetting flat demand in Europe. China accounts for about 40 per cent of global output, and analysts cautioned it was hard to gauge the outlook for production cuts in China. Some analysts expect excess capacity in aluminium smelting will drag on for years as political pressures in China and Russia to keep jobs and push self-sufficiency prevent or delay plant closures.
Top aluminium producer RUSAL Plc has said that it expects more companies to cut aluminium output this year, with China accounting for about a third of global cuts, but still forecast that global output would top demand. A supply glut on the back of a deepening European debt crisis and global economic slowdown has hurt demand and prices for the lightweight metal, sending many aluminium producers into the red and triggering a round of production cuts, including at top U.S. aluminium maker Alcoa.